• 1969
• Concept
• Exhibit map

An expert in the area of technology forecasting, Joseph P. Martino created this map depicting the equilibrium of science and society. The graph on the left shows the number of scientists and the growth in population in the U.S. for nearly 30 years: 1940-1969. Martino calculated that the proportion of scientists in the population had increased from less than 0.5 percent to about 1%. Today, the U.S. has about 300 million people, including about 5 million (1.7%) scientists. On the right, the growth in the U.S. gross national product (GNP) since 1946 and the dollar resources expended in research and development (R&D) for 1953-1968 are shown. The proportion of the U.S. GNP devoted to R&D doubled, from slightly less than 1.5% to 3% over that time period. In 2008, the U.S. GNP was $13 trillion, with about $0.3 trillion (2.3%) spent on R&D. While the percentage of scientists in the total population increases steadily, R&D investment as a fraction of GNP appears to be constant and is declining in purchasing power. The primary purpose of this map is to indicate that science is transitioning to equilibrium, and science policy-makers must start thinking about how to cushion the shocks that will accompany such a transition.